Thesis (Ph.D.) - Cairo University - Faculty of Economics and Political Science - Department of Economics

The growing importance of macroeconomic management over time dictates the need to understand what constitutes effective management of monetary and fiscal policies during the various parts of the business cycles.This study aims at scrutinizing this topic empirically using Egypt as a case study during the timeframe FY 1988/89 {u2013} FY 2015/16. The latest business cycles experienced during this timeframe have been identified by using leading, coincident and lagging indicators and de-trending them using HP filter into cyclical and trend components. During the same period, the relationship between the industrial production index (independent variable){u2013} as proxy for economic growth{u2013} and monetary policy tools (money supply and interest rates) and fiscal policy tools (budget deficit, tax revenues, government expenditure) as the dependent variables using Autoregressive Distribution Lag (ARDL) model.The results of the study show thatmoney supply tends to have a direct impact on economic growth after the lapse of four quarters from its date of change, while interest rates tend to have an insignificant impact on economic growth. As for fiscal policy tools, all chosen variables appear to be directly correlated with economic growth ultimately after four quarters, despite interim negative correlations.The outcomes suggest that decision makers in Egypt could weather economic downturns by implementing expansionary monetary policy while increasing governmental expenditures that could be either financed via tax increases or deficit spending

Issued also as CD