Probabilistic models for construction projects' durations in the Middle East /
Waleed Mahfouz Mohammed Ali Youssef
Probabilistic models for construction projects' durations in the Middle East / نماذج احتمالية لمدة تنفيذ مشروعات التشييد في الشرق الأوسط Waleed Mahfouz Mohammed Ali Youssef ; Supervised Osman Mohammed Osman Ramadan - Cairo : Waleed Mahfouz Mohammed Ali Youssef , 2014 - 223 P. : charts , forms ; 30cm
Thesis (Ph.D.) - Cairo University - Faculty of Engineering - Department of Civil Engineering
The success of construction projects is confronted by several drastic risks. Also, the accurate estimation of activities durations constitutes a major critical concern in the time scheduling process. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of activities duration to evaluate the actual behaviour of activities exposed to different types of risk and uncertainty and to derive regression models predicting activities durations for different cases. The results show that the best PDF to represent construction activities durations is the lognormal distribution. Besides, the ratio of the highest, actual activity duration to the corresponding mean duration is always more than 4 for projects in the Middle East, which differs from that suggested in previous studies (1.25)
Activity Duration Construction Management Risk Management
Probabilistic models for construction projects' durations in the Middle East / نماذج احتمالية لمدة تنفيذ مشروعات التشييد في الشرق الأوسط Waleed Mahfouz Mohammed Ali Youssef ; Supervised Osman Mohammed Osman Ramadan - Cairo : Waleed Mahfouz Mohammed Ali Youssef , 2014 - 223 P. : charts , forms ; 30cm
Thesis (Ph.D.) - Cairo University - Faculty of Engineering - Department of Civil Engineering
The success of construction projects is confronted by several drastic risks. Also, the accurate estimation of activities durations constitutes a major critical concern in the time scheduling process. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of activities duration to evaluate the actual behaviour of activities exposed to different types of risk and uncertainty and to derive regression models predicting activities durations for different cases. The results show that the best PDF to represent construction activities durations is the lognormal distribution. Besides, the ratio of the highest, actual activity duration to the corresponding mean duration is always more than 4 for projects in the Middle East, which differs from that suggested in previous studies (1.25)
Activity Duration Construction Management Risk Management