Testing the Overconfidence Bias in Uganda Stock Exchange/ (Record no. 170050)
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| 000 -LEADER | |
|---|---|
| fixed length control field | 11622nam a22004097i 4500 |
| 003 - CONTROL NUMBER IDENTIFIER | |
| control field | OSt |
| 005 - أخر تعامل مع التسجيلة | |
| control field | 20250223033405.0 |
| 008 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--GENERAL INFORMATION | |
| fixed length control field | 250106s2023 |||a|||f m||| 000 0 eng d |
| 040 ## - CATALOGING SOURCE | |
| Original cataloguing agency | EG-GICUC |
| Language of cataloging | eng |
| Transcribing agency | EG-GICUC |
| Modifying agency | EG-GICUC |
| Description conventions | rda |
| 041 0# - LANGUAGE CODE | |
| Language code of text/sound track or separate title | eng |
| Language code of summary or abstract | eng |
| -- | ara |
| 049 ## - Acquisition Source | |
| Acquisition Source | Deposit |
| 082 04 - DEWEY DECIMAL CLASSIFICATION NUMBER | |
| Classification number | 338.6041 |
| 092 ## - LOCALLY ASSIGNED DEWEY CALL NUMBER (OCLC) | |
| Classification number | 338.6041 |
| Edition number | 21 |
| 097 ## - Degree | |
| Degree | M.Sc |
| 099 ## - LOCAL FREE-TEXT CALL NUMBER (OCLC) | |
| Local Call Number | Cai01.05.09.M.Sc.2023.Tu.T |
| 100 0# - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Authority record control number or standard number | Tumulamye Yoweri, |
| Preparation | preparation. |
| 245 10 - TITLE STATEMENT | |
| Title | Testing the Overconfidence Bias in Uganda Stock Exchange/ |
| Statement of responsibility, etc. | Tumulamye Yoweri ; Supervised: Prof. Dr. Hassan Mounir El-Sady. |
| 246 15 - VARYING FORM OF TITLE | |
| Title proper/short title | اختبار انحياز الثقة المفرطة في بورصة أوغندا/ |
| 264 #0 - PRODUCTION, PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, MANUFACTURE, AND COPYRIGHT NOTICE | |
| Date of production, publication, distribution, manufacture, or copyright notice | 2023. |
| 300 ## - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION | |
| Extent | 73 Leaves : |
| Other physical details | illustrations ; |
| Dimensions | 30 cm. + |
| Accompanying material | CD. |
| 336 ## - CONTENT TYPE | |
| Content type term | text |
| Source | rda content |
| 337 ## - MEDIA TYPE | |
| Media type term | Unmediated |
| Source | rdamedia |
| 338 ## - CARRIER TYPE | |
| Carrier type term | volume |
| Source | rdacarrier |
| 502 ## - DISSERTATION NOTE | |
| Dissertation note | Thesis (M.Sc.) -Cairo University, 2023. |
| 504 ## - BIBLIOGRAPHY, ETC. NOTE | |
| Bibliography, etc. note | Bibliography: pages 68-73. |
| 520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC. | |
| Summary, etc. | Research Question One - Is there a relationship between lagged stock returns <br/>and current trading volume?<br/>Estimated VAR model results show that there is a positive relationship between current <br/>stock market turnover and lagged stock market returns but this relationship is not significant. <br/>This relationship is valid even after accounting for volatility and dispersion as alternative reasons<br/>for high trading volumes (turnover). Further analysis using the granger causality test shows that <br/>return does not granger cause turnover meaning that lagged market returns are not significant in <br/>explaining current market turnover. Graphs from the impulse response functions show that there <br/>is an insignificant positive relationship between lagged stock market returns and current market <br/>turnover.<br/>Generally, the results from the VAR models, results from the granger causality test and results <br/>from the impulse response functions show that there is an insignificant positive relationship <br/>between lagged stock market returns and market turnover<br/>5.2.2 Research Question Two – Do investors on the USE exhibit the overconfidence <br/>bias?<br/>The results from VAR models, the granger causality test and impulse response functions <br/>show that there is an insignificant relationship between lagged stock market returns and market <br/>turnover, it means that the null hypothesis that there is a statistically significant positive <br/>relationship between lagged stock market returns and current market turnover in the Uganda <br/>securities exchange is rejected, therefore, this research does not support the overconfidence <br/>hypothesis that an increase or decrease in lagged stock returns leads to an increase or decrease in <br/>current market turnover. To distinguish the overconfidence effect from the disposition effect, this <br/>research was supposed to carry out tests on both the market wide turnover and individual <br/>security turnover. The results of individual security analysis would help to tell if the observed <br/>overconfidence is not a summation of the disposition effect on the individual security level. <br/>However since the results of the VAR estimates showed that there is no statistically significant <br/>lead-lag relationship between market returns and market turnover, there was no need to carry out <br/>the individual security VAR model analysis. Hence this research concludes that investors on the <br/>Uganda Securities Exchange do not exhibit the overconfidence bias.<br/>5.3 Implications of Findings<br/>This research has added to existing literature in behavioral finance by assessing the <br/>existence of overconfidence bias in a developing stock market. It will be a reference for future <br/>researchers who will intend to expand their understanding of overconfidence bias in developing<br/>stock markets like the Uganda Securities Exchange. It is very important that investors especially <br/>individual investors understand their own ways of how they think, feel and reason. This will <br/>enhance their return on investments, stabilize and improve the efficiency of the stock market. <br/>Investors should also carry out fundamental and technical analysis of stocks before making <br/>64<br/>investment decisions. This will improve their decision making and help them to avoid <br/>psychological and cognitive biases that affect their rationality (Metwally 2023).<br/>The results of this research will help financial advisors to understand the effects of <br/>overconfidence bias on the investment decisions of their clients and hence they can come up with <br/>aggressive strategies aimed at minimizing the negative impacts of this bias. The regulatory body <br/>i.e. the Uganda Capital markets Authority (UCMA) should put into consideration the confidence <br/>level of traders when monitoring the market to plan out new financial policies and strategies <br/>aimed at the efficient operation of the USE. This is because as the number of individual investors <br/>increase, the level of overconfidence will also increase over time and this will affect the volatility <br/>of returns and the general efficiency of the USE.<br/>In order to increase individual investor participation the government through USE and <br/>UCMA should lead in educating the public, especially at individual level about the benefits of <br/>trading on the stock market as an alternative to the traditional investment avenues. To entice <br/>potential investors, the public awareness and education given should address both risks and <br/>benefits so that those wishing to trade will do so from an informed point of view. USE should <br/>fully automate its operating systems just like other stock markets. Embracing ICT would cut <br/>down on the paper documentation process which according to Mshilla et al., (2015) is <br/>considered to be bulky and user-unfriendly. <br/>5.4 research obstacles<br/>The research faced a limitation in accessing recent empirical studies from developing <br/>countries with developing stock markets as most of the recent studies were carried out in <br/>developed countries with developed stock markets. This research also faced a limitation in <br/>accessing data before 2017 as some companies such as uchumi supermarkets delisted from the <br/>exchange before 2017.<br/>Owing to small sample of listed companies on the USE it was not possible to divide the <br/>companies into large capitalization and small capitalization in order to test the existence of <br/>overconfidence on those companies separately<br/>The Uganda securities exchange is going through a digitalization process and so there is no <br/>separate data available on individual and institutional investor accounts. The researcher therefore <br/>failed to compare the manifestation of overconfidence bias in institutional and individual <br/>investors separately. With these limitations in mind, the following recommendations have been <br/>made with the aim of filling the gap or adding to the existing literature in overconfidence bias <br/>and behavioral finance at large<br/>5.5 Future studies<br/>The research recommends considering the disposition effect in future studies. As pointed <br/>out by Statman et al. (2006) overconfidence drives the disposition effect which is the tendency to <br/>sell winning stocks too soon and hold losing stocks for long. Overconfidence and disposition are <br/>65<br/>different in two ways. Firstly the disposition effect is the attitude of an individual towards a stock <br/>in the portfolio but overconfidence affects the whole market. Secondly disposition explains one <br/>side of the trade i.e. the sell side because disposition only happens when investors sell a security <br/>while overconfidence explains both sides of the transaction i.e. buying and selling (Ganesh et al., <br/>2020). Hence, future studies need to test the overconfidence bias alongside the disposition bias as <br/>it has been put forth that disposition might be another behavioral explanation for trading trends <br/>within the stock market (Metwally et al. 2015)<br/>The research concentrated on testing the existence of overconfidence bias on the USE <br/>only, future studies should test the existence of other behavioral biases such as herding. <br/>Understanding the effects of different behavioral biases on the USE would help solve the <br/>problem of price distortions and improve the efficiency of the stock market<br/>As the USE becomes fully automated, separate data on individual and institutional <br/>investors will be accessible. Future studies should therefore test the presence of overconfidence <br/>bias on the USE using individual investor’s accounts and institutional investor’s accounts <br/>separately. There is a wide range of findings in developed countries showing that individual <br/>investors are more likely to be overconfident (irrational) as compared to institutional investors<br/> |
| 520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC. | |
| Summary, etc. | النظريات التقليدية في التمويل تفترض أن المستثمر يتخذ قرارات منطقية وأن الأسواق فعّالة. ومع ذلك، فشلت هذه النظريات في تفسير<br/>بعض الظواهر الغريبة الموجودة في سوق الأسهم، على سبيل المثال وجود مستويات عالية من التداول. نقاط الضعف في نظريات التمويل<br/>التقليدية أدت إلى ظهور التمويل السلوكي الذي يعتبر المستثمر كإنسان عادي يتخذ قرارات غير منطقية عند مواجهته لعدم اليقين نتيجة<br/>لتحيزات نفسية مثل تحيز الثقة الزائدة. عدة دراسات سابقة تربط ظاهرة التداول المفرط بتحيز الثقة الزائدة .<br/>قام العديد من الباحثين بفحص وجود تحيز الثقة الزائدة في أسواق الأسهم. ومع ذلك، تمت معظم هذه الدراسات في أسواق الأسهم المتقدمة،<br/>ولقلة الدراسات في الأسواق الناشئة مثل بورصة الأوراق المالية في أوغندا. علاوة على ذلك، كانت بعض هذه الدراسات غير نهائية<br/>والبعض الآخر كان نظريًا يجمع بين الدراسات السابقة. الغرض من هذا البحث هو اختبار بشكل تجريبي ما إذا كان تحيز الثقة الزائدة<br/>موجودًا ببورصة الأوراق المالية في أوغندا. يتم ذلك من خلال فحص العلاقة بين عوائد سوق الأسهم وحجم التداول باستخدام تقنيات<br/>الفحص الإحصائي للسلاسل الزمنية مثل نموذج المتجه ذاتي الانحدار، واختبار السببية ، ودوال الاستجابة الفورية. أظهرت النتائج عدم<br/>وجود علاقة إيجابية غير معنوية بين عوائد سوق الأسهم المتأخرة وحجم التداول الحالي، مما يشير إلى عدم وجود تحيز الثقة الزائدة على<br/>بورصة الأوراق المالية في أوغندا .<br/>كلمات رئيسية: تحيز الثقة الزائدة، بورصة الأوراق المالية في أوغندا ) USE (، عوائد سوق الأسهم، حجم<br/><br/> |
| 530 ## - ADDITIONAL PHYSICAL FORM AVAILABLE NOTE | |
| Issues CD | Issues also as CD. |
| 546 ## - LANGUAGE NOTE | |
| Text Language | Text in English and abstract in Arabic & English. |
| 650 #7 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name entry element | Investment |
| Source of heading or term | qrmak |
| 653 #0 - INDEX TERM--UNCONTROLLED | |
| Uncontrolled term | overconfidence bias |
| -- | Uganda securities Exchange (USE) |
| -- | stock market return |
| -- | market turnover |
| 700 0# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Personal name | Hassan Mounir El-Sady |
| Relator term | thesis advisor. |
| 900 ## - Thesis Information | |
| Grant date | 01-01-2023 |
| Supervisory body | Hassan Mounir El-Sady |
| Universities | Cairo University |
| Faculties | Faculty of commerce |
| Department | Department of Science in Finance and Investment |
| 905 ## - Cataloger and Reviser Names | |
| Cataloger Name | Aya Mohamed |
| Reviser Names | Huda |
| 942 ## - ADDED ENTRY ELEMENTS (KOHA) | |
| Source of classification or shelving scheme | Dewey Decimal Classification |
| Koha item type | Thesis |
| Edition | 21 |
| Suppress in OPAC | No |
| Source of classification or shelving scheme | Home library | Current library | Date acquired | Inventory number | Full call number | Barcode | Date last seen | Effective from | Koha item type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dewey Decimal Classification | المكتبة المركزبة الجديدة - جامعة القاهرة | قاعة الرسائل الجامعية - الدور الاول | 06.01.2025 | 89768 | Cai01.05.09.M.Sc.2023.Tu.T | 01010110089768000 | 06.01.2025 | 06.01.2025 | Thesis |