Thesis (M.Sc.) - Cairo University - Institute of African Research and Studies - Department of Natural Resources

The main objective of this study, was to evaluate the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in wind prediction over Egypt and Sudan. To investigate this performance, 21 weather stations have been selected from both countries for this purpose. The main climatic features that affecting the study area have been investigated through long-term mean of wind speed and direction, relative humidity, temperature and mean sea level pressure. The model evaluation has been done through, the synoptic situation over the study area and statistical analysis techniques. Different statistical techniques have be used in this study, these are: Mean Bias percentage (MBE %), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE %), Correlation Coefficient (CC) and the T- test. The WRF model has revealed a very good capability to capture the synoptic situation over the study area during the seasons. Also, comparison between measured and predicted wind speed for the selected stations, have proved the highest performance of WRF model in predicting wind speed. The highest performance was at summer, autumn and winter, while it is decreased in spring, especially over the Egyptian stations this is because of Khamaseen wind that makes weather disturbances. The statistical analysis shown that, there are strong correlation between the actual and forecasted wind speeds for the selected days in different seasons. And the T-test indicates that, there are no significant differences between the real and forecasted wind speed for all seasons as all significant values are below 0.05. The highest RMSE has been recorded in summer. While, the lowest one was recorded in winter. On the other hand, the highest value for MBE% was recorded in spring, while the lowest one was recorded in winter. But, overall results have proved the model capability in wind speed prediction over Egypt and Sudan compared to measurements. Overall, it may conclude that; both Egypt and Sudan may depends on WRF model to predict wind speed in the future with high confidence

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