On risk analysis of supply chain problem / Marwa Mostafa Mohamed Selim ; Supervised Hegazy Zaher , Hisham Abdelsalam , Naglaa Ragaa Saeid

Thesis (M.Sc.) - Cairo University - Institute of Statistical Studies and Research - Department of Operation Research

Nature disrupts us with many things like floods, earthquakes and hurricanes and man-made havoc such as terrorist attacks and strikes are a few examples of risk events (REs) that affect the supply chain (SC). These REs force the decision makers (DMs) to search for managerial policies and strategies for their companies to avoid risk{u2019}s consequences and bad impacts. Special industries like fashion, electronic and electrical product industries are more concerned with supply chain risk management (SCRM) due to the short life cycle as it deals with the identification and mitigation of risks, followed by the coordination of resources to minimize the impact of uncertainties of REs. The main purpose of this thesis is to manage inventory policies and sourcing decisions subjected to different types of REs that badly affect SC and to give DMs a clear view in dealing with these disruptions. The thesis considers a stochastic newsvendor inventory type model in a triple sourcing SC with demand uncertainty and the three suppliers here are assumed to be unreliable and the unit cost of product from each supplier is different during a single period. The model is proved mathematically according to the first supplier then according to the second supplier and finally to the third supplier, to reach the optimal solutions from each supplier that maximizes the objective function representing the expected profit

Issued also as CD