Thesis (M.Sc.) - Cairo University - Faculty of Economics and Political Science - Department of Economics

Any instability in the country causes capital inflows to suddenly stop leading to dramatic effects on its international reserves. The main objective of this study is to explore the impact of capital flows volatility on international reserves in Egypt. In this context, it evaluates the situation of capital flows and international reserves in India, Brazil, and Russia in an attempt to reach policy implications to be adopted in Egypt. In order to empirically examine the responsiveness of international reserves to different macroeconomic shocks especially the effect of capital flows shock in Egypt; a structural vector autoregressive model has been employed using quarterly data covering the period 2002/Q3-2015/Q2. In addition, an autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic model has been employed to test the volatility of two variables: The exchange rate and the exports to GDP ratio. The empirical results show that the opportunity cost shock is the most effective factor in determining the ratio of international reserves to GDP in Egypt followed by shocks in capital flows to GDP ratio and the volatility of exports to GDP ratio. It also concludes that shocks in imports to GDP ratio, short term debt to GDP ratio, and exchange rate volatility have a minor effect on the level of reserves in Egypt

Issued also as CD