Thesis (Ph.D.) - Cairo University - Faculty of Economics and Political Science - Department of Economics

This study aims at addressing import issues related to inflation targeting in Egypt : first, investigation of both internal and external shocks that the Egyptian economy faced during the period from 2003-2015. In order to explain the internal and external shocks to the Egyptian economy, the researcher employs both autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) and vector auto-regression(VAR) as well as dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) modeling using quarterly data and then compares the outcomes of both approaches ; second, the choice between targeting all movements and fluctuations in the inflation rate or excluding changes(temporary fluctuations) such as: the supply side shocks, rising energy prices and international prices of some food commodities during 2005-2015; third, design a model for monetary authorities in Egypt to target inflation taking into account the government{u2019}s intervention in setting prices according to Taylor rule during the same period from 2005-2015. In general, the researcher applied the deduction method through the use of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modeling based on maximum likelihood method to explain the latter two issues

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