Thesis (M.Sc.) - Cairo University - Faculty of African Postgraduate Studies - Department of Natural Resources

One of the great challenges of weather and climate science is estimating the probability of the occurrence, severity and duration of an extreme event, as well as its severity and duration, and when and where the event will take place. So, prolonged droughts and flooding are extreme environmental events that can invoke severe economic cost, societal disruption, death and destruction advanced warning of an extreme events allows for preparation, possible evacuation and the marshalling of emergency systems and personnel to help in the mitigation of its effects. Society is accustomed to dealing with climate variations. Agriculture, water management, and many other human actions are already planned to consider the seasonal march. However, as population grows, society is progressively susceptible to climate differences at diverse spatial and temporal scales, but mainly important are those related with extreme events (Cavazos 1999). Extreme weather and climate events have received increased attention in the last few years, due to the often-large loss of human life and exponentially increasing costs associated with them (Karl and Easterling 1999). A varying climate leads to variations in the incidence, strength, spatial extent, period, and timing of extreme weather and climate events, and can result in unparalleled extreme weather and climate events. Fluctuations in extremes can be connected to changes in the mean, variance, or shape of probability distributions, or all of these (Figure 1.1). Numerous extreme weather and climate events remain to be the result of natural climate variability. Natural variability will be a significant issue in shaping future extremes in adding to the effect of anthropogenic changes in climate

Issued also as CD