Thesis (Ph.D.) - Cairo University - Faculty of Graduate Studies for Statistical Research - Department of Biostatistics and Demography

The study aimed to quantify the health burden induced by the main nine non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Egypt, the first to be conducted in the context of a less developing county. Besides, it investigates the four major NCDs' burdenimpact on the economic output passing through the demographic variables in Egypt. The study used the State-Space model and adopted two Bayesian methods: Particle Filter and ParticleMetropolis-Hastings to model and estimate the NCDs' health burden trajectories. In detecting the economic consequences of NCDs, the VARX-L model and the VARX- ENET model were applied. This study uses international and national data sources. The results showed that both Bayesian methods provide evidence that the burden trajectories are on the rise.The results showed that the previous year burden strongly predicts the burden of the current year. High prevalence of the risk factors, disease prevalence, and the disease's severity level increase illness burden. Years of life lost due to death has high loadings in most of the diseases.Contrary to the study assumption, results found a negative relationship between disease burden and health services utilization which can be attributed to the lack of full health insurance coverage and the pattern of health care seeking behaviour in Egypt

Issued also as CD