Role of national early warning score (NEWS) in prediction of ICU mortality : A comparative retrospective observational study /
دور الحرز التحذيرى القومى المبكر فى التنبؤ بمعدلات الوفاة بوحدة الرعاية المركزة الجراحية : دراسة وصفية استرجاعية مقارنة
Karim Alaaeldin Wagdi Tawfik ; Supervised Amany Saeed Mahmoud Arafa , Sahar Sayed Ismael Badawy , Hany Mohammed Elhadi Shoukat
- Cairo : Karim Alaaeldin Wagdi Tawfik , 2017
- 80 P. ; 25cm
Thesis (M.Sc.) - Cairo University - Faculty of Medicine - Department of Anaesthesia
Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic accuracy of NEWS in predicting mortality of surgical ICU patients in comparison to APACHE II scoring system. Patients and methods: This descriptive retrospective observational study was conducted on all surgical patients, aged >18 years, admitted to surgical intensive care unit (SICU) at Kasr Alainy hospital, Cairo university for > 48 hours in the period from January 2015 through December 2015. Predictive mortality of APACHE II and NEWS was calculated. Calibration and discrimination were used for validity of each score. Results: A total number of 353 patients were included in the study in the period from January 2015 through December 2015. 139(39.4%) patients were females, while 214 (60.6%) patients were males. Patients were meanly aged (45.72±16.22) years. The mean length of stay in ICU was (11.73±12.22) days. The average APACHE II scores were higher in non-survivors (24.60±6.57) in comparison with survivors (16.26±7.22) with statistically significant p value (<0.001). The average NEWS scores were higher in non-survivors (7.43±2.17) compared to survivors (4.91±2.12) with statistically significant p value (<0.001). This study showed that the correlation coefficient between values of NEWS and APACHE II was (+0.563) and this means that there is a direct significant correlation between NEWS and APACHE II (p value <0.001). Discriminative power was assessed by area under the ROC (Receiver operator curve) which was (0.797) in APACHE II while in NEWS 0.798