Thesis (Ph.D.) - Cairo University - Faculty of Science - Department of Astronomy and Meteorology

The main objective of this study to assess the variation of the different extreme climate indices over Libya from different CMIP5 models driven by different emission scenarios. Spatiotemporal variability of extreme indices assessed for the near future period 2020-2070 which compared to a base period 1961-1990. The results show that there are significant trend for minimum temperature indices such as the percentage of TN10p and TX10p reach up to 10 % by the end of 2070. For maximum temperature indices such as the percentage of TN90p and TX90p there are a significant increase compared to the base period by 50% at the end of 2070. For precipitation we found insignificant difference when compared to the historical reference. Also form CORDEX models, extreme temperature incdices calculated for four stations for the near future period (2021-2055). The results for stations Sebha, Kufra, Tripoli and Shahat, have a significant increase of TX90p and TN90p and a significant negative trend for TX10p and TN10p. Number and duration of heat wave have a positive trend for all stations except for Kufra and Shahat have a negative trend for heat wave number. Thus, these results are vital for forthcoming development of community health and energy for Libya, which must acclimate to prospect warming scenarios divisions

Issued also as CD