Thesis (M.Sc.) - Cairo University - National Cancer Institute - Department of Cancer Biology

Background: Cancer is now the third leading cause of death worldwide. Proper understanding of the magnitude of cancer problem and its details depend on cancer registries. In depth analysis of available cancer registry national results is needed. Aim of work: The main objective of the current study is in-depth analysis of national cancer registry data to illustrate the future profile of cancer in Egypt up to 2050 based upon current incidence rates and demographic characteristics of the population Methods: The national age specific incidence rates for a specific age group was applied to the corresponding population structure of this age group to get incident cancer cases in a specific age group. Total incident cancer cases in a specific year is the sum of all incident cases of different age groups in this year. For estimation of number of cases due to population growth in a specific year, the population structure of that year was applied to incident cancer cases of the reference year then the resulting number was divided by population structure in the reference year. The remainder number of increase in cases in that year would be due to aging. Results: Total incident cancer cases in 2050 would increase about 170% relative to 2015, 32.8% of this increase would be due to population growth while aging of population would account for 67.1% of this increase. Childhood cancer would show an increase of only 9% compared to 300% increase in cancer of elderly. Aging of population .would affect profile of cancer in 2050

Issued also as CD